Iteration and Forecast

When historical values are not available, a common technique is to run a single iteration and make a forecast from that sprint. Since the forecast is a prediction rather than an average of definite values, it is less precise and accurate than using historical values. However, it gives teams a starting point and a range in which to place their velocity for the next sprint. Even if the velocity isn’t perfect, it allows the team to plan the next sprint based on more data than they had for the first iteration.

In addition to the number of story points that the team completed in the first sprint, they can account for things that went well or badly. The sprint retrospective allows the Scrum team an opportunity to discuss what they may need to stop doing, begin doing, or change from the previous sprint. With these changes, the team can anticipate that the next sprint may be better than the most recently finished sprint. Because a better sprint will likely result in more completed work, the team may forecast the velocity higher in the next sprint. As teams learn to work together more efficiently and understand the product better, they should be able to complete more story points in the same length sprint.

Velocity is a key component of Agile, and probably the most important figure in sprint planning. Teams can begin with a single iteration and a forecast, and eventually hone in on a better velocity figure that will allow them to plan more accurately how many story points they can finish in a sprint. Given enough historic values and a consistent team and project, the Scrum team should know with good accuracy how many story points they can finish sprint after sprint.

Recommended Further Reading

The following materials may assist you in order to get the most out of this course: